Cenex Nederland, working alongside Cenex UK, was commissioned by the Institut Luxembourgeois de Régulation (ILR) to carry out Luxembourg’s assessment under Article 15 of the EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) — evaluating how electric vehicle (EV) chargepoints can contribute to the flexibility of the national electricity system. The study quantifies how smart charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology could support balancing markets, absorb renewable energy, and defer network reinforcement costs, both today and in a 2030 forecast scenario.
This assessment fulfils Luxembourg’s obligation under Article 15(3) and 15(4) of AFIR, which requires every EU member state to repeat this exercise every three years — the first round was due by 30 June 2024, with the next due by 30 June 2027. Member states may delegate the work to their national energy regulator, as Luxembourg did with the ILR. Read the full legal text on EUR-Lex.
Approach & Key Findings
The study used a perfect foresight optimisation model to simulate typical high- and low-renewables winter and summer days, comparing a 2023 baseline against a 2030 forecast scenario. EV uptake, plug-in behaviour and renewable generation capacity were varied within the 2030 scenario, with charging events modelled for cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles at home, workplace, destination and en-route locations.
In 2030, with an incentivised plug-in behaviour, EV charging could shift up to 878 MW of demand away from peak periods, compared with 88 MW under current conditions. Optimising charging against day-ahead wholesale prices could save up to 299k EUR per day; adding vehicle-to-grid (V2G) raises this to 403k EUR, and combining V2G with grid services such as aFRR and FCR takes savings to 427k EUR on the reference days modelled.
Using EV charging solely to reduce network peak demand could defer network reinforcements worth an estimated 566M EUR by keeping most Luxembourg regions below 2023 capacity levels. Charging optimised to absorb renewable generation could also support 1,198 MW of additional installed renewable capacity, lifting the renewable share of consumption on the highest generation day from 64.5% under unmanaged charging to 73.5%.
Cenex recommends that Luxembourg pursues optimised EV charging for its system-wide benefits, and that V2G is rolled out given its potential to pay back within one to four years. Encouraging more frequent plug-in behaviour, exploring aFRR and FCR grid services, and diversifying pricing signals were identified as key next steps to unlock this flexibility without adding new strain to the grid.
Read our full write-up of the study on the Cenex Nederland blog, or explore how we help clients move from pilot to programme on our Vehicle-to-Grid Rollout service page.